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South Africa part 3: Cecil Rhodes
To think of these stars that you see overhead at night, these vast worlds which we can never reach. I would annex the planets if I could; I often think of that. It makes me sad to see them so clear and yet so far. -- Cecil Rhodes, Last Will and Testament
This is the 3rd post in a series on South Africa and Apartheid and so far in the first two neither Apartheid nor South Africa even exists. But we are to the mid climax. In first part we discussed how our groups of players: Afrikaners, British, Xhosa, Zulu, minor tribes, other ethnicities got to what would become South Africa. In the second part we discussed how the Zulus and Xhosa knocked themselves out of the game leaving the British and Afrikaners as the main players standing for who got rule what would become South Africa. We also discussed how the British policy was non-viable. This part is going to discuss how the British changed course and consequently won control. We are also going to get to the genesis of the Western Left's hatred of the Afrikaners and the genesis of Apartheid, We'll end on the creation of the Union of South Africa which while not the Republic of South Africa will allow me to stop talking about "Southern Africa", "territory that will become South Africa".... But unfortunately you will have to sit through this one more post where South Africa doesn't exist yet. Cecil Rhodes was born in 1853 the sickly asthmatic 5th son of a not particularly notable clergyman. He'd remain sickly his entire life dying in 1902 at the age of 48 from the sorts of deterioration of the heart and lung one wouldn't expect to see until a man was at least well into their 90s. In that short span he would: become one of the richest men in the world; found several countries; change the entire economic structure of the territories that would become: South Africa, Botswana, Zambia, Mozambique, Namibia and Zimbabwe; found 2 major corporations: the British South Africa Company and De Beers; rethink British imperialism inventing what would become the British Commonwealth; becoming one of the defining figures and great visionaries of the Victorian Age; trigger the 2nd Boer War; demonstrate the strategy changing nature of the machine gun decades before World War 1; be the only genuinely important Prime Minister of the Cape Colony; invent the concept of corporate armies; play a large role in saving the South African wine industry and most importantly be the only individual getting his own post in this series. :) Rhodes was sent to South Africa at the age of 17 so that the British weather didn't kill him. Rather than doing the normal thing and spending the money (amounting to a decade or less of a comfortable middle class salary, but no great fortune) on living with some gambling and girls thrown in he decided to head to the newly discovered diamond mines in Kimberly and started buying up small diamond mining operations leveraging each mine's output and outside financing to buy the next. Later he partnered with leading financing and trading firms so by 1888 had what amounted to monopoly control of diamond industry turning De Beers into the diamond powerhouse it remains to this day though the last pieces wouldn't fall into place until 1890. He by the 1880s De Beers was throwing off enough excess profits that he could pay investors and continue expending De Beers while being able to found the predecessor to the British South Africa Company operating much further into the interior opening up Bechuanaland and Rhodesia as colonies using his own profits to fund the administrative expenses much as the East India Company had done a century earlier. Rhodes believed that British policy wasn't viable because it was petty. A vibrant healthy economy throws off an enormous amount of tax revenue. Petty colonialism, like the kind the British were engaging in would never generate much profit because of its very short term nature. Britain should make money by investing in the local economy, spend some on upkeep, reinvesting most of the profits and just skim a little of a forever growing payout. What Britain had tried to do with the American colonies encouraging economic development was the right approach. The problem was London had been shortsighted and selfish turning the local administrators against them. The independence of the USA wasn't a strategic failure it was the result of poor tactical implementation. The problem the British were facing in Southern Africa was similar and since the policies had been similar the results would be as well. The Afrikaners had no reason to be loyal to a Britain which had spent almost a century making very clear that it had no interest in their welfare or society beyond some ports which were frankly not nearly so important since Suez had opened. Rhodes changed policy to have Britain stop acting like a colonizing power and start acting like the domestic government of South Africa as much as possible .Outlining his changes to colonial governing policy:
Colonial financing -- utilize profits from business ventures fund army. Rhodes' companies were good examples of this the British charter and the backing of British troops allowed him to make excess profits which allowed him to incur expenses which the previous skinflint administration could never have tolerated. For example British colonial bonds generated an average return of 4.7%. Investments in independent American bonds generated an average return of only 2.9%. The difference was not being taken into account when the Colonial Office calculated their return on investment which to Rhodes' mind was simply lousy accounting.
Long term investment -- In general rewire the metrics used at the London Colonial Office to focus on long term investment not short term profits.
Demographics -- The British were the world's first people. Physically populate as much of the world as possible. Assimilate other people's into the British way of life. In South Africa in particular he intended to win the hearts and minds of the Boer.
Stability -- The previous administration had focused on stability because instability created upheavals that increased administrative costs. For too long British colonial policy was to tolerate and coexist with local culture. To create a profitable economy agricultural efficiencies are going to need to be introduced. That means 90% of the natives are going to freed up to work in a manufacturing and processing workforce. It also means the agricultural tribal traditional culture is going to be completely destroyed. Instability not stability should be policy. Seek to replace local culture with British culture to enhance the potential for economic growth.
Glory to British not England -- English colonies exist for glory of England. British colonies self exist. England's glory is that is the Birthplace of the 1st people not how much of the world remains completely non-British while in some vague unimportant sense recognizing Victoria as their Queen.
Representation -- As long as colonial governments respond to a English democracy they will be unrepresentative of their people. Create a democratic institution which provides representation for all British people in a British Parliament. There should be an English parliament for England. Invite the United States to join this new institution. "Inauguration of a system of Colonial representation in the Imperial Parliament which may tend to weld together the disjointed members of the Empire and, finally, the foundation of so great a Power as to render wars impossible, and promote the best interests of humanity" (NB: this is essentially the British Commonwealth, though of course the USA was not invited)
Devastating defeat of enemies -- Colonial policy was designed to solve conflict cheaply. Small military victories do not undermine the hostile's economy nor their society and thus don't accomplish much. They simply delay and prolonging the problem created by the enemy allowing the enemy to choose points in time to achieve advantage. Avoid costly wars certainly but when war is needed seek to inflict devastating defeat so the subject people realize their inferiority. This realization facilities undermining their institutions and thus during the peace their way of life easily becomes more British. Further a willingness to war like this makes challenging Britain very costly and risky for potential enemies and thus wars will be far less frequent. The financial people are correct that the aggregate cost of inflicting devastating defeats infrequently is higher than more frequent small wars but the benefits are far greater. War carried out towards devastating defeat becomes a form of investment not a pure non-productive expense.
Scope -- The British were far to unambitious in their aims. The goal of British colonialism should be "all lands where the means of livelihood are attainable by energy, labour and enterprise". The scope was, "the occupation by British settlers of the entire Continent of Africa, the Holy Land, the Valley of the Euphrates, the Islands of Cyprus and Candia, the whole of South America, the Islands of the Pacific not heretofore possessed by Great Britain, the whole of the Malay Archipelago, the seaboard of China and Japan, the ultimate recovery of the United States of America as an integral part of the British Empire"
map of Cecil Rhodes' proposed British Empire You'll notice that all of Africa was in the map. Rhodes was of the opinion that Africa was incredibly rich in minerals and peoples. But it wasn't exploitable for profit because of a lack of transportation infrastructure. Rhodes was pushing to start fixing this by creating a full African north-south railway connecting "Cairo to the Cape". Rhodes' BSAC conquests were designed to drive north while he used his political influence to push the Egyptian conquest further south into Anglo-Egyptian Sudan and then a business similar to BSAC run by Sir William Mackinnon to push into Uganda. For the northward push (primarily in what today is Zambia, Zimbabwe and Botswana) Rhodes was directly implementing his policy using a private army funded from the British South Africa Company. The Ndebele and Shona (Zulu tribes) were handled easily by the devastating defeat principle. Rhodes' forces demonstrated how effectively Maxims (a primitive form of machine gun) and barbed wire worked against simple rifles, spears and long shields achieving kill ratios never before seen in the history of warfare. As an aside these battles against the Zulus would also be used by those military theorists and historians who correctly anticipated in the later 1890s through 1910s how devastating a war between the great powers would be using these weapons against each other. Rhodes through BSAC had managed to push north of Lake Mweru and to the Northern tip of Lake Nyasa. Which almost connected with Sudan were it not for German East Africa (Burundi, Rwanda, and Tanzania) in the middle. In theory an alternative route through the Belgian Congo would also work but the gold mines in Tanzania kept Rhodes focused on taking German East Africa. Further Rhodes met his match in ruthlessness when it came to the Belgians. When Rhodes' negotiating agent sought a development contract for mineral-rich Katanga (in Congo) the native ruler Msiri refused. King Leopold II of Belgium obtained the same concession by having his agent signing it to Belgium himself over Msiri's dead body in the name of the "Congo Free State". At the same time Rhodes worked with the Colonial office and in 1890 British issued the "1890 British Ultimatum" to Portugal. This ultimatum by the British government forced the retreat of Portuguese military forces from areas which had been claimed by Portugal on the basis of historical discovery and recent exploration, but which the United Kingdom claimed on the basis of effective occupation. Portugal had attempted to claim a large area of land between its colonies of Mozambique and Angola including most of present-day Zimbabwe and Zambia and a large part of Malawi, which had been included in Portugal's "Rose-coloured Map". This ultimatum violated the Anglo-Portuguese Treaty of 1373 which to that point had been the longest standing peace treaty in history. Who owned what by the early 1900s Take a look at the map above and imagine the British controlling the north-south line connecting to a British/Portuguese line running east-west in the south and a joint French/British/Italian line running east-west in the north. From there local government and companies could construct smaller feeder lines creating a modern rail system. Hopefully and you start to see how Rhodes intended to start developing the transpiration infrastructure needed to create a strong African economy. All this was going to be for naught though if Southern Africa ended up as a Boer state hostile to British interests on the model ZAR (Zuid-Afrikaansche Republiek, Transvaal Republic). So Rhodes decided to run for Prime Minister of the Cape Colony and solve the problems of British strategy explicated in part 2. The primary problem the Boer had with British government is their divide and conquer approach. The British tilted to whomever was losing (a standard British policy they would also follow in Palestine) which for decades meant treating the Boer and native Africans as both being subject peoples while favoring the native Africans against the Boer. In Rhodes mind you could not expect to get loyalty from people you were obvious disfavoring. The British were the ones turning the Boer into enemies. So in 1892 Rhodes instituted the Franchise and Ballot Act. This was seen as a compromise between factions in the Colonial Office and the traditions in the Cape Colony for a broad democracy (anyone with £25 in property could vote) and Orange and ZAR's (Zuid-Afrikaansche Republiek, Transvaal Republic) more exclusive democracy. Rhodes raised the amount of property to £75, an amount specifically chosen to disempower many of the native Africans while allowing many Boers to vote. With a Boer and British based democracy locked in the Cape Colony's democratic powers could be strengthened, creating more self rule and making the involvement of the London Colonial Office less obvious. This concept of using a not explicitly racial criteria while instituting laws with racist intent is very modern. Various Liberals in the London Colonial Office especially missionaries disagreed strongly with Rhode's policies. They had been the ones advocating for the enlightened colonialism that was British policy. Missionaries in particular saw their role as: combating godlessness, superstition and backwardness. In particular encourage better use of land; encourage paycheck work; become trusted advisor to tribal leaders. The slogan "Bring the 3Cs into Africa" referred to Commerce, Christianity and Civilization. To their mind Rhodes' vision of British Imperialism was straight up military tyranny. If followed he would make England no different than a modern day Genghis Khan, creating a empire loathed by a vast expanse of subject peoples who would unite against it from all directions. Instead interfering minimally and being seen as an ally while slowly educated the elite in British custom and religion would cause a gradual consensual change that would build British alliances that would last centuries. Plus such an approach would fulfill the Lord's Great Commission (term for Jesus' command to convert the entire world to Christianity) in a way that honored God rather than shamed him. One need only look at how the Spanish, Portuguese and Balkans had thrown off Islam after centuries to see how ineffective military tyranny was at long term conversions that didn't require force. So in their mind: No the London Office should stand by its traditional values of: monopoly companies and plantations run in (unequal) partnership with indigenous elite. free trade, free (and indeed forced) migration, infrastructural investment, balanced budgets, sound money, the rule of law and incorrupt administration. As far as their Boer, in their mind the Boer were the primary impediment to enlighten British rule in South Africa, being Christians they were obligated to agree with the missionaries on the vision of the White Man's Burden and Enlightened Empire. Rather than making concession to the Boer they needed to be crushed to demonstrate the moral difference between the Boer and the British. With Rhodes' change in policy tilting towards rather than away from the Boer the Western Left came to truly hate the Boer in 1890s. Since the point of this series is the analogy I'll add that I wrote two posts about more or less the same groups of Liberal Christians turning against Israel again having to do with Israeli/Jews discrediting Liberal Western values and thus interfering with the Great Commission: WCC churches and Quakers. Rhodes in debates before and at the time considered this Liberal Empire stuff to be simply aspirational. Without economic interference there wasn't enough money to fund anything like what the Liberals proposed. He'd point to facts like that after a century of such rules in India they had increased the secondary schooling 7x to a whopping 2% while England with not nearly as many well funded missionary organizations was over 16%. Rhodes hoped to unify all of Southern Africa around this compromise approach to the franchise. ZAR however rejected this compromise. By the mid 1990s approximately 1/3rd of their white population were British (Anglicans). ZAR had every intent of maintaining religious based voting criteria (i.e. citizenship in ZAR was only open to people who were members of several Dutch Reformed Churches, see part 2). Obviously for Rhodes a situation where British people were the disempowered minority was intolerable. Additionally the ZAR were maintaining an anti-Cape Colony / anti-British / anti-Rhodes trade policy. It was becoming increasingly clear there would need to be regime change. So in 1895 Rhodes organized an attempted coup d'état now called the "Jameson Raid" (yes the same Jameson who went on to be Prime Minister 1904-8 of the Cape Colony after the 2nd Boer War). The Afrikaners were more astute than natives had been caught wind of the early organization and waited until the forces were committed trapping hundreds of Rhode's people creating a great embarrassment. Its at this point that the Boer made by far the greatest mistake of their history as a people. The 4 years between 1895-9 were when they made the choices that led to their ruin. The British were really embarrassed. A colonial governor who had a crown chartered corporation had been caught red handed engaging in a serious act of war against another sovereign state with no approval from Parliament. The Colonial Office admitted as much and forced Rhodes out of office in 1896. The Afrikaners had real negotiating leverage to work out a deal. It obviously would be extremely important that the next leader of the Cape be friendly. But they didn't decide to negotiate. Instead they started flirting with the Germans, while not actually signing a formal alliance with Germany that at least had the potential to provide them real protection. The flirtation however, turned a nasty incident into a serious threat to all British interests in Southern Africa forcing a British response. In Britain an alliance of Jingoists (populist military hawks) angry about the humiliation of 1st Boer War, Conservative Imperialists who wanted to end Boer independence especially in the ZAR (the 3 core values for Conservatives at the time were: Union with Ireland, the Empire and the superiority of the British race), Liberal Imperialists who supported Rhodes' vision and Missionaries who hated the Boer formed pushing for a war. Seeing this alliance form against them the Afrikaners did nothing to avert the danger. Rather they made a mistake many 2nd tier powers do when it comes to 1st tier powers. The Afrikaners confused the light force and weak will the 1st tier power is willing to spend on them with the amount of force the 1st tier power is capable of employing if it so chooses. Having beaten the British handily in the 1st Boer War when they were fighting the C-team (as I called in part 2) the Afrikaners grossly underestimated what they would face against a British army that had a political mandate for victory, what Britain's A-team would look like. Preparing for something slightly worse than the 1st Boer War the Boer began a serious arms buying program in 1897. ZAR also got more belligerent in their rhetoric which led to a formal alliance with the Orange State and Boer guerilla groups that could support the war effort in the Cape. The Boer had about 63k troops including some foreign troops. . The British were determined not to lose the 2nd Boer War. This was going to be the British-A team. By the second phase of the war between British soldiers, soldiers from other colonies and local Africans providing auxiliary Boer were facing a 500-600k man army. Nor was the command third or even second rate as it had been in the 1st Boer War. For example, the top military command would be Herbert Kitchener who was fresh from the victorious Anglo-Egyptian invasion of Sudan. Kitchener after the 2nd Boer War would go on to be the Commander-in-Chief for the armies in India and a decade after that the UK's Secretary of State for War during World War 1. He's this guy: Kitchener famous 1914 recruiting poster The cost to maintain that army would be £60m / year far more than Britain could ever pull out of Southern Africa (GDP and inflation adjusted the Boer War would cost the UK about $250b). The first phase of the war was a Boer offensive while the British were still deploying troops in October–December 1899. Once the British were done they conquered all pockets of resistance in the Cape and Orange as well as essentially the entire ZAR territory January to September 1900. The Afrikaners decided to fight when surrender was the better option. Leading to a guerrilla war between September 1900 and May 1902. The British simply could not afford to keep an army of that size in the field for years dealing with guerilla tactics until the Boer admitted they were beat. Facing time pressure the British felt they had no choice but to come down hard. The British cut the guerilla war short by instituting a scorched earth policy against areas giving support to guerillas in the ZAR (most of the ZAR). ZAR men were mostly in the militias. Scorched earth destroyed the food supply in the ZAR so the British threw the women and children in concentration camps. The army hadn't prepped for needing to support massive numbers of civilians so malnutrition and disease were rampant in the concentration camps. This disease and malnutrition resulting in a camp death rate of approximately 30% annually. A policy amounting to genocide. Pro Boer forces in the UK generated widespread opposition to the camps so the military response was to not confine woman and children and instead leave civilians on the now barren earth to die of starvation and exposure. Actual POWs were deported to Bermuda and India preventing the Boer from standing any chance of liberating them. African tribes that had lost territory to the Boer began moving in. While both sides had agreed not to arm natives or recruit tribes. But the British weren't going to fight for the Boer if tribes decided to take advantage of their defeat. The Boer were quickly losing everything they were fighting for: freedom, their lands, their family, the self dependence and surrendered rather than have their population geocoded to oblivion, being left with no economy and whatever lands they managed to hold being assaulted on all sides by natives who would take it from them. The Boer society that emerged from the surrender did not have separatist attitude. Destitute Boers now willing to work in the minds and alongside black Africans swelled the ranks of the unskilled urban poor competing with the "uitlanders" in the mines. The new economy was unambiguously focused on gold causing mine production to swell enriching the British interests. The Afrikaners were both physically and psychologically crushed, and wouldn't be causing any more problems for decades. In the UK the war came to be seen as excessive especially as the financial cost of the war sunk in. The Conservatives' suffered a spectacular defeat in 1906 driving the Conservative Prime Minister at the time (12 July 1902 – 4 December 1905) Arthur Balfour from office. He comes up rather regularly on this sub in his later role as Foreign Minister. As the Boer are no longer resisting the British Empire the shift towards more pro-Boer policies from England continues. In 1909 the British Parliament dissolves the British colonies of: Cape of Good Hope, Natal, Orange River Colony, and Transvaal and combines them into a Federal Union of South Africa. This makes South Africa into a Dominion (essentially Australia's status at the time). Jan Smuts (an Afrikaner) resurrects Rhodes' idea of a Common Wealth and the British embrace it. And so we conclude part 3 our story of how the British eventually won and South Africa came to exist. How the Western Left started to hate the Boer, a hatred they would resurrect later. And how the first steps towards apartheid were taken. Whew that was longer than I intended!
I copied One Angry Gamer’s “List” so everyone could see it without giving him the website traffic
((Enjoy! EDIT: Formating fixed!)) ((EDIT II: Updated as of 6/5/2020. It's already past the 40,000 character limit so I had to take this to a pdf / Google Doc, but I'll update them as well too. I'm keeping this up as a teaser and you can find the rest here: OAG Doc / OAG pdf)) ((EDIT III: Updated as of 6/6/20. Ya boi went from 561 entries to 750 so he's as busy as ever. The Doc link above has been updated and I'll post the new pdf after I get home from work. Here ya go: OAG 2 pdf (pardon for the wait. had complications)))((EDIT IV: Updated as of 6/7/20. He's gone from 750 to 834 entries. This thing is 21 pages long my dudes. Anyway, Doc has been updated and here's the pdf: OAG 3 pdf)) ((EDIT V: Updated as of 6/8/20. He's gone from 834 to 951. Boi's about to crest 1,000. You dudes know the drill by now tho. Pdf: OAG 4)) ((EDIT VI: Updated as of 6/9/20. He's gone from 951 to 971 so I'm actually kinda hoping he's running out of steam. His site is bad and I don't wanna keep going back. Pdf: OAG 5)) Traitors of America A number of individuals, companies, outlets, and media institutions have stepped forward to announce that they support the groups enabling riots, violence, vandalism, theft, assault, and murder taking place at the hands of vandals and thugs across the United States of America. Anyone looking to find out which companies, brands, and content creators have betrayed the trust of the American people by aligning with groups that support the deconstruction of Western values, this list will enlighten you as to who the traitors are so you can stay informed. [Note:] Some of the people/brands/companies on this list are not headquartered in America. However, they still cater to and influence the American (consumer) audience, and in light of their influence to help sway the views of American citizens, they have been added to the list. ((Ya boi made a list so long he had to add an index)) Corporations/Brands by alphabet: A, B, C, D, E, F, G, H, I, J, K, L, M, N, O, P, Q, R, S, T, U, V, W, X, Y, Z Celebrities/E-celebs by alphabet: A, B, C, D, E, F, G, H, I, J, K, L, M, N, O, P, Q, R, S, T, U, V, W, X, Y, Z Corporations/Brands
100 Thieves (E-sports organization) – Traitor
20th Century Studios – Traitor
2K Games – Traitor
343 Industries (Halo developer) – Traitor
500 Women Scientists – Traitor
ABC Network – Traitor
Abelton (Audio company) – Probation
Academy Awards – Traitor (Obviously)
Acer America – Traitor
ActBlue – Traitor
ACLU – Traitor
Activision Blizzard (Winnie The Flu’s minion) – Traitor
Although AEF uniquely benefits from the structural tailwinds of both superannuation and ethical investing, we believe it remains misunderstood as an expensive traditional fund manager. The Opportunity Australian Ethical Funds (ASX.AEF) is a public market superannuation fund manager. The perception of the company itself vs. the industry is nicely summarised by the two figures below. Herein lies the opportunity. https://preview.redd.it/jhvvua1t5oj51.png?width=680&format=png&auto=webp&s=e511deb4411e81840ffcf8b635e1d8f7b78eeb6e AEF is a renowned Australian fund manager that fits within the ESG trend. It represents one of the only pure play superannuation investments in the Australian public market, with 67% of funds under management (FUM) coming from superannuation. The stock bounced exceptionally from a low of $2 in March, reaching a high of $9 in June, and has since retraced towards the low $4s. Previously, the business traded at $6+ following its announcement of end of year FUM and expected earnings figures. On 8th August IOOF Holdings (ASX.IFL) – 19.9% shareholder – announced it was divesting 15% of its stake in AEF. IOOF is a peer and platform provider which offers AEF products to its clients. The investment was sold at $5.24 vs. market price of $5.90. IOOF disclosed it was selling its AEF investment (at a gain) to raise much needed liquidity. The block trade was viewed negatively by the market, with AEF immediately re-rating to below $5.24 and trending downwards (towards low $4s) ever since. The current share price of $4.17 (24 August close) implies the stock is trading at ~51x FY20 earnings guidance, which is slightly above historical levels despite substantially improved performance and outlook. We suspect that the FY20 results will be aligned with guidance (as demonstrated historically) provided in the quarterly FUM update and guided earnings figures. Results have also been positive across its peers throughout mid to late August (see ‘Roadmap’). https://preview.redd.it/t4oy3ksu5oj51.png?width=478&format=png&auto=webp&s=e2a88ef0bf70fba2e85d36bc71a1df2994217dcf Company History AEF began as Australian Ethical Investments (AEI) in 1986 and was owned by 600 insider shareholders before listing. It is a superannuation fund – so revenue is derived from fees on managing invested funds. By 2005, the business managed four unit trusts and a superannuation fund: · Australian Ethical Balanced Trust (est. 1989) · Australian Ethical Equities Trust (est. 1994) · Australian Ethical Income Trust (est. 1997) · Australian Ethical Large Companies Share Trust (est. 1997) · Parent of Australian Ethical Superannuation (est. 1998) The investments of the trust and super fund are guided by ‘The Charter’ – a series of positive and negative investment screens that must be taken into account when selecting securities for inclusion. https://preview.redd.it/cye711106oj51.png?width=680&format=png&auto=webp&s=60c149549d7d752c26108c662ec319b56ebf371a In July 2005, the government enacted policy that afforded more choice to individual employees with regards to their superannuation provider (marking the beginning of a positive era for the superannuation industry). In that same year, AEF registered for a superannuation license which it was granted in 2006. Back in 2005/06 the company did not split out superannuation FUM, but FUM increased from $311m in Jun-05 to $380m in September-05 following this policy shift – suggesting there was an existing demand for ethical investment products in superannuation. From 2005 to 2011, AEF grew total FUM from $311m to $644m, despite muted FUM growth through the GFC-era. In 2012, the business began separating out its superannuation FUM-growth to improve its visibility. This era saw FUM increasing from $617m in 2012 to $4.05bn as at 30 June 2020. From 2016-19 reduction in FUM-based fees has seen suppressed revenue growth vs. FUM growth. This has resulted in several step changes in FUM-based revenue margins (revenue / FUM) as a result of lower overall fees earned on products. We view this shift as a positive in the long-run since AEF has competitively priced its funds, entrenching their competitive advantages (discussed below) and reducing the temptation that fee-conscious members switch funds. Since AEF has ratcheted the cost of their funds downwards (often ahead of their peers and industry averages), we believe fee compression improves the durability of AEFs revenue compared to peers who are yet to compress their margins. https://preview.redd.it/fcq5jog26oj51.png?width=453&format=png&auto=webp&s=d194c8778727e9adf1ebc162e6b181d8207cc292 Business Model AEF has a relatively simple business model – revenue is derived from fees on managing invested funds. The funds it manages includes retail, institutional and wholesale (non-super) funds, as well as superannuation funds. We are most interested in the superannuation business although the direct and indirect benefits associated with the funds management business are a noteworthy component to the brand and investment management infrastructure (i.e. ideation / performance fee generating / high performing ESG). Until 2012, AEF did not explicitly separate its super vs. non-super FUM. We believe this contributed to its (mis)perception as a traditional fund manager rather than a superannuation fund. Thankfully, since 2012 AEF has provided details relating to the composition of its FUM (below), and noticeably the growth in its superannuation FUM has been the driving force of the business. https://preview.redd.it/6ccbtqm36oj51.png?width=680&format=png&auto=webp&s=6fb4e11064313ca9ab7b57186b2eddc6be62b928 Competitive Advantage 1.Superannuation Exposure: Superannuation FUM is higher growth and lower risk than traditional managed funds. Superannuation funds are regulated to grow at 9.5% due to the Superannuation Guarantee (the Australian Government mandated superannuation contribution). The regulatory framework could see this increase up to 12% in the medium-term and 14% in the long-term. For the purpose of our analysis, we have assumed a constant 9.5% contribution – so any increase would be additional upside. More importantly, excluding fulfilling conditions of release (i.e. death) an individual's superannuation cannot be withdrawn until retirement. Much like the Superannuation Guarantee, withdrawals are also mandated on a schedule that increases as a percentage of FUM with age (beginning at 4% and increasing to 14%). Consequently, the minimum inflows and withdrawals are predictable (and we note the vast majority of individuals do not deviate from these minimum levels due to inertia). Because of this mandated growth, Australia has the fourth largest pension sector in absolute terms and second largest relative to GDP (below). In 2020, the total superannuation pool is ~$2.1trn and growing. It is estimated that by 2040 superannuation assets could be as much as $9trn according to the Australian Treasury. https://preview.redd.it/wenevil56oj51.png?width=680&format=png&auto=webp&s=c2210a8e26816af1ebf798d82c414c61760c5d5e Alternatively, traditional managed funds are subject to redemption risk, caused (typically) by performance and myopic investor behaviour associated with general market movements. Therefore, FUM growth for traditional managed funds must be attracted through marketing and distribution channels. This inextricably links fund inflows and outflows to performance and marketing efforts, which in turn causes a clientele that is more expensive to acquire and retain, and a more volatile pool of assets. Alternatively, traditional managed funds may access capital through secondary capital raisings and the reinvestment of distributions; both of which are a country mile from a 9.5% government mandated contribution. Logically, we wondered which (listed) asset could provide us with exposure to the exceptionally robust superannuation tailwind. We will not spend too much time detailing the industry dynamics and public market players as there is a lot of information to be found in various prospectus’ (see Raiz or OneVue prospectus). The main thing to understand is that superannuation funds can be separated into five buckets: https://preview.redd.it/jyykix976oj51.png?width=680&format=png&auto=webp&s=07e96ebc246a565546e400ef87018d3d3360cd48 After screening for diversified financials and financials businesses on the ASX there were 53 players with at least some revenue linked to superannuation. The revenue exposure desired is revenue linked to superannuation FUM (explained further in the ‘Valuation’). However, it is important to understand that gaining access to this lucrative industry is difficult for several reasons: · Private industry funds – the gems of the industry have been private superannuation funds such as CBUS, Hostplus, and ESTA. We cannot access them as public market investors. · Conglomerate financials – it is possible to gain some retail superannuation exposure within the banking majors such as CBA, WBC, ANZ and NAB. However, they represent insignificant exposure by revenue and profit and the stocks are driven by other risk and growth factors. · Fund managers – fund managers may directly manage retail superfunds or SMSF funds such as Magellan, Platinum and Perpetual. However, there is limited visibility over superannuation FUM exposure. · Superannuation adjacency businesses – superannuation exposure can also be housed within wealth / platform advisers such as like HUB24, Netwealth and OneVue. However, to varying degrees, these businesses are not purely exposed to superannuation-FUM linked revenue. · Pure play sub-scale – the final example can be found in Raiz, which is a sub-scale business that has ~$450m in FUM of which 85% is funds management. It is possible to envisage this business as an AEF in 10-15 years with larger superannuation FUM exposure. Although the superannuation exposure representing $70m in FUM currently (vs. AEF $2.72bn) is vastly inferior to AEF. For this reason, AEF is the closest to a pure play (at scale) superannuation player. Putting this together, we believe AEF is likely to continue to grow its FUM at 20% p.a. YoY. This is principally due to AEF's ability to acquire new members and retain existing members. Therefore, to monitor this continued FUM growth going forward we encourage readers to look out of the number of superannuation members added in these upcoming results and beyond. AEF has grown its member base YoY consistently in an industry which has, on average, been relatively flat in terms of member growth. In 2019 AEF was the highest growing superannuation business in Australia across the previous 5-years. https://preview.redd.it/c4t7jx596oj51.png?width=226&format=png&auto=webp&s=51e47aa607470ce6482ed30352183a6cf6043bff 1.Ethical, Social and Governance (ESG): Beyond the obvious tailwinds in superannuation, AEF is also exposed to another important trend: ESG. Needless to say, ESG investing is becoming not only popular but almost mandatory for corporate money managers. Younger demographic investors are increasingly concerned with the ethical and social impacts of corporate activity. This report by Harvard and another by State Street provide some interesting commentary on the issue. ESG ETFs have been growing at a CAGR of >30%, and State Street forecasts that the global ESG ETF market will increase from US$170bn in 2020 to US$1.3trn in 2030. Momentum for ESG ETFs has been building specifically in Australia, where AUM surged almost 300% — from A$554.1m in 2017 to A$2.2bn in 2019. Whilst the ESG-shift has been occurring since the 2010s, State Street argue that COVID-19 will only further catalyse this shift by highlighting the inherent inequalities in society and health care systems, in turn, spurring social conscience. We note the following data points as indicators of this more recent catalyst: · Perpetual’s recent acquisition of Trillium, a US-based ESG fund, shows the desire of traditional asset managers to become exposed to this space. · BlackRock has started publishing more frequently and consistently on ESG trends and continued rolling out ESG products. · Forager’s investment blog received frequent commentary from investors talking about negative screening on their gambling holdings which has never been the case in the past. The key insight is that a growing proportion of the investment community through time is becoming concerned with ESG issues and this will drive fund flow. Industry data is pointing to the fact that this is a prolonged structural shift rather than a short-term trend. 2.Performance: AEF has improved upon their exposure to structural industry trends in superannuation and ESG through excellent fund performance. AEF's performance (below) has been consistently strong across all of their strategies (we highly recommend reading page 4 of Sequoia's June 15, 2020 "Investor Day Transcript" to highlight how governance and performance are complimentary). Such strong performance not only disincentivises members from switching to competitors and assists member acquisition, but also significantly enhances earnings at the group level. For instance, FY20 guidance provided on 7 July 2020 vs. 22 June had a midpoint difference of ~$2m. Given the long track record of the managers it is expected performance will remain strong. https://preview.redd.it/p6shg5nc6oj51.png?width=680&format=png&auto=webp&s=e65acb553371c6bc7c1f70ddfdf153e9e625117a https://preview.redd.it/mtn23k7d6oj51.png?width=680&format=png&auto=webp&s=9a7ba471248070f9f05216cdf5bbcab2a1f9102b Valuation Key: · FUM = funds under management · FUA = funds under administration · MA = managed accounts · FU\ = total funds (FUM + FUA + MA)* Valuing a Superannuation Member: Our valuation technique here will be somewhat unconventional. We will attempt to value the lifetime revenue per member (LRM) for AEF and for a traditional fund and then highlight the incongruity of their relative valuations. The long-term nature of lifecycle retirement saving (and by virtue the true value of a superannuation fund) demands a long term perspective. Fortunately, the mandated nature of AEFs cash flows facilitates evaluating the lifetime value of a superannuation member. To estimate the LRM we consider the following: (i) life cycle expectations (i.e. retirement age and life expectancy); (ii) salary expectations; (iii) superannuation contribution rate; (iv) investment returns; (v) member "type;" (vi) fee structure; and (vii) a discount rate. We begin by assuming a member makes $5,000p.a. at age 20, which grows to $130,000p.a. through the middle of their working life (35-50) and then declines to $90,000p.a. at 65 (noting these are gross values not inflation adjusted). Since the average member account balance for AEF is ~$60,000 (FUM of $4.05bn ($2.72bn of which is superannuation) / 43,000 members = $60,000 as at 30 June 2019), we can roughly assume that the average age of their member is between 30-35, which places them at the profitable end of this member acquisition cycle. Further, this member regularly contribute 9.5% of their earnings to their superannuation, which compounds at a rate of 6% p.a. Moreover, the prototypical member starts working / paying superannuation into AEF at age 20, retires at age 65, and redeems according to the minimum withdrawal schedule until age 85. However, how many members live according to this prescribed lifecycle; supported by an uninterrupted working life? What about people that take time off to raise children, either returning to part-time work or full-time work? We can model these archetypes also, which assumes much lower income growth and some years of earning no income. If we assume that society is roughly split into thirds by these archetypes (i.e. 1/3 uninterrupted, 1/3 interrupted and return part time, 1/3 interrupted and return full time), then we can calculate a weighted average LRM for the average member. Compressing fees by more than half to 50bps and assuming a 7% discount rate we arrive a weighted average discounted LRM of ~$18,000. Whilst comparing this to the average member in another non-super fund is difficult for an array of reasons (i.e. average acquisition age, average income, average balance, average contribution, redemption allowance etc.), we can loosely estimate what this looks. Adopting the same framework as above, to estimate the LRM of an average managed fund member we must first define the managed fund member "archetype." First, we assume the average traditional fund member has a higher income profile (as lower income earners typically do not invest in managed funds). We tweak the income profile to peak at $180,000 between 35-50 and taper down to $120,000 by age 65. Second, we assume the acquisition age is 30 years rather than 20 to reflect that most individuals do not invest in traditional managed funds until later in life. Thirdly, we account for the non-compulsory nature of managed fund contributions. If we start with the marginal savings rate (10-year average of ~7%) as a proxy for available funds for investment and increase this to align with our ‘managed funds’ archetype who has higher income to 15%. We then assume that from this 15%, about 1/3 will be invested into a managed fun (or ~5%). Therefore, for our individual earning $180,000 during peak working years, this is an annual contribution of $7,200. Finally, we increase the discount rate to 9% since because redemptions are more likely in a traditional fund. Using these alternative assumptions, we arrive at a LRM of ~$5,000. The significant difference in LRM helps explain why a superannuation business can command a much higher multiple of FUM or earnings. Further, we believe our estimate of LRM for a traditional fund manager is quite bullish (i.e. overstated) due to the following: (i) it assumes the individual works full-time for their entire life; and (ii) it assumes the individual stays with the fund from age 30 to 65 and makes uninterrupted and stable contributions. Although dollar cost averaging is touted as an eighth wonder of the world, we are doubtful it is applied as often as it is spoken. Trading Multiples Valuation: Valuing AEF on a relative basis is difficult given the lack of peers. Against traditional fund managers (i.e. Magellan, Perpetual and Platinum), which trade between 5-20x earnings, and superannuation exposed platforms (i.e. Netwealth and Hub24), which trade between 25-40x earnings, AEF looks relatively expensive. We are acutely aware that AEF is currently (at ~$4.2) trading at 12.6% of FUM and ~51x earnings; and at its peak (~$9) was trading at 25% of FUM and 120x earnings. We believe the valuation difference is driven by the quality of the FUM managed and, therefore, the quality of the earnings growth. Given their high alignment to superannuation, NWL and HUB are the two most comparable firms to AEF. As the trailing figures show, AEF appears to be trading on par with its peers. However, an important nuance is the trailing figure for AEF is based on 2019 earnings, whilst for NWL and HUB it is based on FY20 earnings given they have already reported. As such, on a like-for-like basis AEF’s ‘trailing’ earnings multiple (based on the mid-point of management’s guidance) is actually ~51x. This means it is trading below NWL and HUB, despite the fact that the majority of those businesses’ FU* is linked to FUA rather than FUM, which has a lower monetisation rate. Not to mention, the split between superannuation and managed funds is not as clearly delineated as is the case with AEF. What is also evident is limited analyst coverage of AEF and lack of forecast guidance assisting the market to predict growth (as is the case with NWL and HUB). Relative to traditional fund managers (i.e. PPT, PTM and MFG), we note the substantial difference in FUM and business quality. AEF hosts the highest monetization rate (Rev/FUM), even whilst facing fee compression, with the highest FUM growth among its investment management peers. Furthermore, we expect EBIT margins will improve from ~30% toward its larger traditional fund managers peers due to economies of scale over time that we believe will more than offset any fee compression. AEF has also supported a very high ROE due to its sticky clientele and service-based business model. The combination of: (i) best in class monetization; (ii) high LTM and increasing membership base; (iii) improving margins; and (iv) high ROE will make for an incredible growth engine on earnings in the long term. Thus, AEF is a higher quality business with ~4x+ the LCM of a traditional fund trading at only a 2-3x premium using current ratios... https://preview.redd.it/nffeuvef6oj51.png?width=680&format=png&auto=webp&s=e0aed3fcb4464355aa965ed151d6dc2e484ff4b8 Risks We note the following investment risks with AEF:
Fee Compression – The funds management industry is subject to fee compression across both funds and superannuation funds. There has already been a lot of restructuring of AEF’s fees since 2016. The investment product(s) they advocate is also one that serves an ethical / moral dimension and can arguably be charged at a premium above market. Notwithstanding fee compression beyond that which we have considered would place downward pressure on margins.
Member Attrition – The stickiness of AEF's membership base is a hallmark of their competitive advantage although this could be reversed over time due to poor performance or corporate mismanagement. We encourage the reader to keep an eye on member growth and net inflows over time.
Product Reproduction – There is no official IP upon ESG investing and new products are increasingly being promoted to capture market share of this growing market. We believe AEF's early mover and strong brand serve to mitigate this risk.
Regulatory Risks – Changes in the superannuation regulatory environment can be material. This has long been debated within the public domain although it has been viewed as politically unfavourable to change the superannuation system without a reasonably long lead time and grandfathering provisions, which we hope would make any changes unlikely and less meaningful.
Investment Roadmap Peers’ Earnings Updates: In summary, the FY20 results of peers indicate that businesses with revenues dependent on investment funds have performed quite strongly during this period. https://preview.redd.it/np04rasg6oj51.png?width=680&format=png&auto=webp&s=0de02bee60036e9bd71068815e618c2f3711db24 Earnings Announcement: Earnings release on 26 August 2020 should provide for the first catalyst to remind the market of the AEF's fundamental performance. The key figures here will be superannuation FUM, superannuation members and FY20 earnings. AEF will also provide ongoing quarterly FUM announcements, with the following update due in early October. We may also see a mid-August FUM figure in the most recent announcement. Finally, AEF has historically provided updated FUM in back-dated results announcements. Evidence of this occurring can also be found in HUB's most recent announcement: https://preview.redd.it/jz8frxfi6oj51.png?width=680&format=png&auto=webp&s=325d7973e1eb6c98e714dea69306b1ebf8ab0cc7 Private Market Activity: Whilst we think that a private equity buyout is unlikely for AEF, further media exposure and transaction data points should help the public value these assets. There have been some recently executed and rumoured deal activity in the space through 2020. Notably, KKR – one of the largest US-based global private equity funds – bought a 55% stake in Colonial First State valued at ~$3bn from CBA. The implied valuation was ~16x EBITDA, despite the quality of business model and LTM of members being substantially weaker than AEF. There is similar PE interest in NAB’s MLC Wealth, with US funds CC Capital and FC Flowers on second round bids for the asset. NAB's MLC Wealth business caught the attention of Carlyle, BlackRock, and KKR earlier in the year although deals were not executed. The interest from KKR in Colonial is particularly notable, given Scott Bookmyer (KKR partner) who refers to Australian superannuation as the ‘the envy of the western world’. We believe AEF may benefit indirectly from private equity interest, which will confirm both the long-term value and viability of their business model.
I am a Macedonian from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_Macedonia. The Macedonian Mafia is a term used to describe illegal gangs and criminal organisations operating in my country Macedonia and within the Macedonian diaspora. Macedonian organized crime figures operate mostly in Europe and North America (countries such as Germany, Austria, United States, Canada, Monaco, Italy, France, Spain, Cyprus, Turkey, Greece, Switzerland, England, Serbia, Montenegro, Kosovo and Bulgaria are primarily favored by Macedonian organized crime figures for operating in or for forming partnerships with local organized crime groups, primarily from other Balkan or Eastern European countries as well as Italian syndicates, for their cultural, linguistic, ethnographic and geographical similarities as well as because of existing mutual ties between the organized crime groups or their members abroad and in the home countries, or the use of countries such was Switzerland, Monaco, Luxembourg and Cyprus for off-shore banking and money laundering), as well as Canada, the United States, Australia and New Zealand. Macedonian organized crime groups co-operate with other Balkan organized crime groups including the Serbian, Bulgarian and Albanian groups, both in the Balkans and in other places around the world, as well as the Italian mafia and the Russian mafia (through Bulgaria). Macedonian organized crime is usually centered around all types of legitimate businesses alongside typical organized crime activities such as smuggling, import and export, drug trafficking, extortion, arms trade, fraud, auto theft, racketeering, gambling, human trafficking, murder, contract killing, bodyguarding, prostitution and money laundering. Macedonian organized crime is also involved in security companies like the Bulgarian mafia, as well as with them, especially operating out of cities in eastern Macedonia, such as Štip. They are thought to have ties with the Janev Clan and the Albanian Mafia when concerning the trade of tobacco. Macedonian organized crime in Australia and Toronto, Canada is predominant among youth. Macedonian organized crime, similarly to Bulgarian, Serbian, Albanian and Russian organized crime, utilizes the concept of using security groups to protect their businesses, enforce their power and eliminate competition. These security groups are usually composed of ex military, special forces, martial artists/MMA fighters and bodybuilders. While most security groups are responsible for low level activities such as posing as nightclub bouncers(nightclubs are a Macedonian gangsters' favorite meeting and party place, along with the kafana). These security groups hide behind and operate mainly under a corporate structure, but some are more militarized than others and have been labelled as terrorist groups. It's also safe to say that the Macedonian military itself is also heavily influenced and involved in organized crime activities and is a breeding and training ground for some gangsters. Some well known and higher quality security groups usually possess Macedonia's best and most infamous enforcers, and aside having checkered backgrounds these criminals have gone to be the top ranking Macedonian politicians(presidents and prime ministers) and businessmen's personal security detail and bodyguards. They have even killed people on their behalf. Same as the above, the banking system in Macedonia heavily relies on organized crime in order to flourish, with limited foreign funding from its umbrella banks in Western European countries, it's unable to flourish on its own. It's also safe to say that some Western European, Russian and Middle Eastern banks have set up money laundering centers in Macedonia in the form of banks, companies, religious and educational institutions. Recently, a growing trend in Macedonia used by organized crime groups to launder money(because of the country's poorly organized justice and financial system and widespread political corruption it's hard for law enforcement officials to find evidence highlighting any type of illegal activities in terms of financial crimes when the Macedonian legal statues on financial crime is still heavily based on the Communist Yugoslavian one which does not apply in any way to the modern Capitalist system) is through the use of gambling institutions such as sports betting and casinos.
Macedonian Mafia - Key People
_ Marjan Tushevski (aka Bokser) (killed July 2001): head boss of the Macedonian underground. -Goran Georgievski (aka Mujo) (1969–2005) (killed April 2005): Former member of the Lions special police force. Georgievski, along with several ethnic Albanian criminals operating in the Republic of Macedonia, was listed on a black list issued by the European Union. - Nikola Mojsovski (aka Koljo) (killed July 2005): 2001 Macedonia conflict combatant who was involved in racketeering in Prilep. Head boss of the Prilep underground. - Zoran Manaskov (aka Skrseniot): The alleged leader of the Frankfurt mafia, a huge Macedonian led heroin ring operating in Germany and Austria based out of the city of Veles, Macedonia.
40 Best Songs of All Times About Poker, Dice, Cards and Addiction
40. Go Down Gamblin’ - Blood Sweat and Tears
Released in 1971, Go Down Gamblin’ by Blood Sweat and Tears is a song describing a gambler who is “born a natural loser.” He never wins, no matter what game he plays, but, he doesn’t feel like a loser. As the song goes – “Cause I've been called a natural lover by that lady over there, Honey, I'm just a natural gambler but I try to do my share.”
39. Gambler - Madonna
Gambler is a song written and played by Madonna, made for the film Vision Quest. Although the song reached the top 10 in the charts of the UK, Australia, Belgium, Ireland, Netherlands, and Norway, Madonna performed it only once on her 1985The Virgin Tour. It’s a catchy song, we suggest you play it as you spin the reels of some of your favourite retro online slots.
38. The House of the Rising Sun - The Animals
Our list wouldn’t be complete without the 1964 hit song - The House of the Rising Sun by The Animals. Everybody knows the famous lines ”My mother, she was a tailor, sewed these new blue jeans, my father was a gamblin' man way down in New Orleans.” This single had a major success and made it to the top 10 songs on mainstream rock radio stations in the USA. Likewise, the hit was featured in the video game Guitar Hero Live.
37. The Winner Takes It All - ABBA
Whether we admit it or not, we all love at least some songs played by the very well-known Swedish pop group, ABBA. According to some sources, Bjorn Ulvaeus wrote the 1980 hit song The Winner Takes It All which was inspired by his divorce to his fellow band member, Agnetha Fältskog. The winner takes it all is a sort of a comparison to a divorce (especially the part ”I've played all my cards and that's what you've done too, nothing more to say, no more ace to play”), where one of them is the winner and the other one is left with nothing. And things are just the same when it comes to gambling, so we’ve decided to put the song on our list.
36. Shape of my Heart - Sting
We’re all aware of the fact that our gambling behaviour can be influenced by certain types of music and that's because online gambling and music go hand in hand. So, we suggest you start playing your preferred games with one of everyone’s favourite songs by Sting called The Shape of my Heart. It was released in 1993 and used for the end credits of the film Léon. In one of his interviews, Sting explained that the lyrics of the song tell the story of a card player who places bets not in order to win but to figure out something that’s been bothering him - “some kind of scientific, almost religious law.”
35. All I Wanna Do Is Play Cards - Corb Lund
“Well, I guess I really oughta be makin up songs but all I wanna do is play cards. I know it's dumb and sick and wrong but all I wanna do is play cards. Got the studio booked in Tennessee, and my record producer's callin me, the tape will roll in just three weeks and all I wanna do is play cards.” Does it sound familiar? It’s a 2005 hit by Corb Lund called All I Wanna Do Is Play Cards, once you hear it you’ll be playing it on repeat.
34. Gambling Man - The Overtones
When you’re falling in love, it’s perfectly normal to feel like you want to gamble everything just to attract that person’s attention to notice you and love you back. Well, Gambling Man is a lively 2010 song that tells a story of a guy fascinated with his love, so he places all his bets on her, as the song goes - “I played my hand, I rolled the dice, now I'm paying for my sins, I got some bad addiction.” This time, he feels that this love affair is different from any other – “Baby, it's you, yeah, yeah, that's right.” The song was released in 2010 and has been popular ever since.
33. Poker Face - Lady Gaga
Although the Poker Face song is more about the game of romance rather than the game of poker, the catchy refrain that starts with “Can't read my, no he can't read my poker face” kinda reminds us of winning at the tables, so we couldn’t skip it this time. Released in 2008, the song achieved worldwide success, topping the charts in the USA, the UK, Australia, Canada and several European countries.
32. Little Queen of Spades - Robert Johnson
Moving on to the Little Queen of Spades, a song title by the American blues musician Robert Johnson who recorded the song in 1937 and first released it in 1938. The first version of this gambling-themed song has a playing time of 2:11, whereas the second one lasts 4s longer (2:15), and is considered an alternate take and first appeared on Johnson's album The Complete Recordings, in 1990.
31. Train of Consequences - Megadeth
Another great song Train of Consequences is the title created by Megadeth, released as the first single from their sixth studio album Youthanasia in 1994. The song was later included on their compilation albums and its music video was the 26th most played video on MTV. There’s this part of the song “No horse ever ran as fast as the money that you bet, I'm blowing on my cards and I play them to my chest” – which is about a person’s gambling problem, who realises something’s wrong with this lifestyle, but it still hunts him down. Could be just the thrill, but he just can’t stop playing.
30. Gambler - Whitesnake
Released on the album Slide It In (1984) and appearing on the compilation album Gold (2006), Gambler is the song by the British hard rock band Whitesnake. These words may sound familiar - “No fame or fortune, no luck of the draw, when I dance with the Queen of Hearts, a jack of all trades, a loser in love, it's tearing my soul apart”. And in case you’ve never heard it, we think you should give it a shot, the chances are you’re going to love it!
29. Gambling Man - Woody Guthrie
Now here’s one single from 1957 - Gamblin' Man. The song was taped live at the London Palladium and published as a double A side, with Puttin' On the Style. Reaching #1 in the UK Singles Chart in the summer 1957, it was “the last UK number 1 to be released on 78 rpm format only, as 7' vinyl had become the norm by this time.” Written by Woody Guthrie and Donegan, this gambling themed song was produced by Alan Freeman and Michael Barclay.
28. Roll of the Dice - Bruce Springsteen
According to Songfacts, Roll of the Dice was the first Springsteen’s song he didn’t write by himself. In fact, E Street Band’s pianist Roy Bittan helped with the music, while Springsteen was in charge of the lyrics, starting with – “Well I've been a losin' gambler, just throwin' snake eyes, Love ain't got me downhearted. I know up around the corner lies, My fool's paradise in just another roll of the dice.” After he broke up the E Street Band in October 1989, Springsteen wrote lyrics for the Roll of the Dice (with two other songs) and liked them to the point where he began writing and recording more songs.
27. Queen of Diamonds - Tom Odell
Here’s one song about a gambling fanatic who’s trying to satisfy his own addiction but also someone else, hoping it’s going to save him. Released in 2018, Queen of Diamonds is Tom Odell’s song from the album Jubilee Road, based on the local characters that inspired this British songwriter to include the whisky-soaked gamblers who regularly visited one betting shop.
26. The Angel and the Gambler - Iron Maiden
Now, this song may divide Iron Maiden fans and it’s most probably because of its repetitive lyrics that can be a bit annoying. The release we’re talking about is The Angel and the Gambler. Truth be told, the melody in general is very catchy and, even a bit similar to The Who in some moments. As the song was released in 1998 while Blaze Bayley was its frontmen, it’s missing the well-known high-pitch vocals from Bruce Dickinson.
25. Ramblin' Gamblin Man - Bob Seger
We’re moving on to a rock single from 1978 - Ramblin' Gamblin Man by Bob Seger. The author meets an old acquaintance, a professional gambler who happens to be a swagger. As such, he attracts people’s attention whenever he bets. Putting so much of his faith in the cards (rather than in people), he walks away every time, just before avoiding loss. Along the way, the narrator realises that, if you scratch beneath the surface, you’ll find he’s a very cynical man, who will never change. Another gambling-themed song worth mentioning by Bob Seger is Still The Same.
24. Blow Up The Pokies - The Whitlams
Blow up the Pokies is the next song on our list, played by The Whitlams. It is the second single by the group from their 4th studio album, Love This City. Released in the year 2000, the song became a hit and made it to number 21 on the ARIA Singles Chart. According to several resources, the lyrics written by singer Tim Freedman were inspired by the destruction he saw in original Whitlams bassist Andy Lewis's life, due to his gambling addiction.
23. A Good Run of Bad Luck - Clint Black
Now here’s one 1994-song packed with gambling-related terms. As you listen to A Good Run of Bad Luck, recorded by American music artist Clint Black, you'll have a bit of fun as you try identifying what all these gambling terms mean. The song is a bit fast and is about falling in love by using gambling metaphors. The main character is willing to spend a lot of money to win his special lady over and, although he has had a period of bad luck, he is not giving up – “I've been to the table, and I've lost it all before, I'm willin' and able, always comin' back for more.”
22. When You’re Hot, You’re Hot - Jerry Reed
Jerry Reed won a Grammy for the song When You’re Hot, You’re Hot which was released in 1971. Most people remember it as it was a major hit, ranked as number 1 in the country charts, also making its way up the Pop Top 40. It’s an enjoyable novelty song about the ups and downs of the gambling life, about one’s winning streak caught in an illegal game of Crap. Country star Jerry Reed also came up with a version The Uptown Poker Club in 1973.
21. Lawyers, Guns and Money - Warren Zevon
Next one up - Lawyers, Guns and Money is a song by Warren Zevon, the closing track on his album Excitable Boy, released in 1978. An edited version of this song was distributed as a single and found itself on the A Quiet Normal Life best of compilation on the CD and LP. The song goes like this - “I went home with a waitress the way I always do, how was I to know she was with the russians, too? I was gambling in Havana, I took a little risk Send lawyers, guns, and money Dad, get me out of this, hiyah!”
20. The Lottery Song - Harry Nilsson
According to the man in the 1972 pop-rock song The Lottery Song by Harry Nilsson, there's more than one way to get to Vegas. Addressing his lover, the narrator mentions a few different options for buying a ticket and going to Sin City – “We could win the lottery we could go to Vegas,” and “We could wait till summer, we could save our money” as well as “We could make a record, sell a lot of copies, we could play Las Vegas.”
19. Casino Queen - Wilco
Now here’s one black-humoured gambling-themed song, released in 1995 and titled after a casino. Featuring a dirty electric guitar, Casino Queen was composed by an American songwriter, Jeff Tweedy, who wrote this song after playing a game in a riverboat casino accompanied by his dad. Inspired by the event, the author wrote: “Casino Queen my lord you're mean, I've been gambling like a fiend on your tables so green.”
18. Have a Lucky Day - Morphine
Another song on our list that you simply must check out starts like this: “I feel lucky, I just feel that way, I'm on a bus to Atlantic City later on today. Now I'm sitting at a blackjack table and swear to God the dealer has a tag says, "Mabel." Hit me, hit me! I smile at Mabel, soon they're bringing complimentary drinks to the table.” Check it out yourself - it’s called Have a Lucky Day by Morphine.
17. Kentucky Gambler - Merle Haggard
Written by Dolly Parton and released in 1974, Merle Haggard’s Kentucky Gambler is another song on our ultimate gambling playlist that you should pay attention to. It’s about a miner from Kentucky who leaves his family to gamble, under the bright lights of Reno. Unsurprisingly, his winning streak comes to an end, and he loses all his winnings. All broke, he decided to return back home only when he arrived, he found out his wife was involved with someone else.
16. The Jack - AC/DC
The next song on our list will give you some adrenaline boost, for sure. It goes like this - “She gave me the queen, she gave me the king, she was wheelin' and dealin', just doin' her thing, she was holdin' a pair, but I had to try…” Sounds familiar? This song from the 1975s is called The Jack and is played by AC/DC and there’s no way you can skip it.
15. Blackjack - Ray Charles
Moving on to something a bit different - a melody that blackjack lovers can listen to as they play is Ray Charles’ Blackjack. Apart from being a good quality song from 1955, it carries an important message with an emphasis on how brutal the game of blackjack can be. Some sources say that Ray Charles wrote it after beating T-Bone Walker at a blackjack game session. Yet another Ray Charles’ famous song about gambling is called a Losing Hand.
14. Ooh Las Vegas - Gram Parson
“Ooh, Las Vegas, ain't no place for a poor boy like me”... is a song-into for Ooh Las Vegas which was written by Gram Parsons and Ric Grech. It was first released by Gram Parsons with Emmylou Harris in 1974. Playing this song would be perfect for the beginning of the road trip (i.e. to Las Vegas), especially if you have the energy to sing along.
13. The Stranger - Leonard Cohen
Published in 1968 and performed by Leonard Cohen, The Stranger appears in the The Ernie Game movie about a man released from a mental asylum. More appropriately, it is the perfect opening song in the 1971 Western McCabe & Mrs Miller, in which Warren Beatty plays a gambler. As you listen to this song (without watching the movie), it makes you see fascinating images of card games, smoky dreams, and concepts of risk versus safety.
12. Desperado - Eagles
Written by Glen Frey and Don Henley, Desperado song is one of The Eagles’ greatest hits from their 1973 album of the same name. The song features a classic tune while the ballad tells the story of a lone wolf imprisoned by his loneliness. As for the lyrics, they have loads of card references mentioning the queen of diamonds, the queen of hearts, and so on.
11. Huck's Tune - Bob Dylan
The next song on our list is about the risks of poker, money, and relationships, which are precisely what the movie Lucky You is all about. Does it ring a bell? That’s right, this 2007 song is called Huck’s Tune and is performed by Bob Dylan. Each of us can all relate to lines "You push it all in, and you've no chance to win, you play 'em on down to the end." Play the song and you’ll enjoy more than 4 amazing minutes of Bob Dylan. Likewise, Bob Dylan recorded Rambling, Gambling Willie and Lily, Rosemary and the Jack of Hearts, both excellent and both inspired by gambling.
10. Four Little Diamonds - Electric Light Orchestra
A song by the British rock band Electric Light Orchestra Four Little Diamonds was released in 1983 and found itself on the album Secret Messages. The single wasn’t so popular in the US, being only 2 weeks on the Billboard Hot 100 chart, at number 86, and number 84 in the UK. This song refers to the singer’s cheating lover who tricked him out of a ring which had 'four little diamonds' on it.
9. You Can't Beat The House - Mark Knopfler
Moving on to our next choice for the day, You Can’t Beat the House. It’s the third song on the Get Lucky studio album released in 2009 by British singer-songwriter and guitarist Mark Knopfler. The album and the songs received favorable reviews with the album reaching the top three positions on album charts in Denmark, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Norway, and Poland. The singer’s divine voice combined with beautiful music and lyrics goes like this – “You can't bear the house, you can't bear the house, tell the man somebody, you can't beat the house.”
8. Deck of Cards - Don Williams
Deck of Cards is a recitation song that tells the story of a soldier who gets caught while playing cards in church and then faces a sentence from a superior officer. The soldier defends his case, explaining he wasn't about to deal a hand of poker, but was rather confirming his faith with the cards. Performed by T. Texas Tyler, the song managed to become a major hit in the 1940s and 1950s. Also, Wink Martindale had an even bigger hit with his 1959 cover, with a successful version by Don Williams featuring Tex Ritter and Buddy Cole.
7. Gambler’s Blues - B.B. King
First recording of the song Gambler’s Blues by B.B. King was in 1966, and it was released in 1967. The song appears on the album Back in the Alley (1970). Some say gambling and blues go hand in hand, so if you (gambling fans) haven’t heard it, listen and see for yourself.
6. Tumbling Dice - Rolling Stones
One of our favourite songs on the list is Tumbling Dice, written by Mick Jagger and Keith Richards. It tells the story of a gambler who can’t remain faithful to any woman. Being released in the 1970s and featuring a blues boogie-woogie rhythm, the song was and still is one of the greatest singles of all time. Rolling Stones also recorded Casino Boogie, and it’s from their 1972 album, Exile on Main St.
5. Luck Be A Lady - Frank Sinatra
The next song on our list is about a gambler who hopes that he will win a bet, the outcome of which will decide whether he is able to save his relationship with the girl of his dreams. You probably know what song we’re talking about; it’s called Luck be a Lady released in 1965 and performed by one of the most popular musical artists - Frank Sinatra.
4. Deal - Grateful Dead
Next one up is the song Deal. It was first performed by the Grateful Dead in 1971, as a regular part of the repertoire through their 1970's tour. Although being less common to the fans during the 1990s, the band continued to perform it. The singer opens with the message: “Since it cost a lot to win and even more to lose you and me bound to spend some time wondering what to choose,” that later kicks off with a chorus: “Don't let your deal go down...” Loser is another song first performed by the Grateful Dead in 1971 as well, heavily played during 1971 and 1972.
3. Ace of Spades - Motörhead
Ok, the next song is loaded with some great gambling verses like "The pleasure is to play, makes no difference what you say, I don't share your greed, the only card I need is the Ace of Spades" will definitely set you in the right mood for hitting some winning combinations. Released in 1980, the song was inspired by slot machines that the lead singer Ian Fraser “Lemmy” Kilmister played in London pubs.
2. Viva Las Vegas - Elvis
As soon as you start playing the second song from our playlist “Viva Las Vegas,” you’ll probably picture a huge casino and a great gaming atmosphere. Performed by the legendary Elvis Presley, the 1964-released song brings the glamour of the city, and its beat will get you in the mood for some serious gameplay. This song was written for the movie of the same name starring Elvis Presley, in which he plays a race car driver waiting tables at a hotel to pay off a debt. There’s this famous scene when he performs this song at the talent competition alongside many showgirls.
1. The Gambler - Kenny Rogers
Performed by the legendary country singer Kenny Rogers, The Gambler song is our number 1 - it's full of some betting advice that are relevant today, even though it was released more than 40 years ago, in 1978. Here’s how it goes… “If you're gonna play the game, boy you gotta learn to play it right, you've got to know when to hold 'em, know when to fold 'em, know when to walk away, and know when to run.” These classic chorus lines were told from the first-person perspective inspired by a conversation the author had with an experienced poker player on a train. Written in the form of poker metaphors, Schlitz wrote the tune in honor of his late father. Johnny Cash is also among other musicians who recorded The Gambler in 1978, on Gone Girl.
States are not homogenous entities. They are composed of dozens of different interest groups and cliques, each with their own vision for what the state ought to do and what society ought to look like. In functioning states, these groups agree on more things than they disagree on--or at least, the powerful groups are able to monopolize power enough to keep dissident voices drowned out. Carefully crafted power sharing arrangements, usually aided along by some sort of common enemy or common mission, keep states functioning well enough to work as coherent actors in the international arena. But these alliances are not set in stone. Like the sands of the Rub’ al Khali, they shift with the winds. One day, two factions may be the closest of allies. The next, one might overreach. One might think they have become too powerful to need to be held down by the commitments they’ve made to their erstwhile allies. And what happens when they’re wrong? Chaos. Power in Saudi Arabia On paper, the King of Saudi Arabia holds near-absolute power over the country. With no constitutional constraints, it would seem that the King (or more recently, the Crown Prince) enjoys unlimited power in Saudi society. There is no elected--nor even appointed--legislature to serve as a check on the King’s power. If the King wishes to permit women to drive, he need nearly decree it, and so shall it be. Viewing Saudi Arabia through this lens, however, flattens the existing power dynamics in the country. The King’s absolute power is in practice constrained by the varied interest groups that help to lend legitimacy to the institution of the monarchy, such as (to name a few) the military, the House of Saud, and the religious establishment (the ulema). The relationship between the ulema and the monarchy has been critical to the continued existence of the Saudi Arabian state. Starting with the 1744 alliance between Muhammad ibn Saud, the founder of the al-Saud dynasty, and Muhammad ibn ‘Abd al-Wahhab, the two groups have formed something of a symbiotic relationship. The House of Saud provides the Wahhabist movement with protection and propagates its beliefs, and in exchange the Wahhabist movement lends legitimacy to the monarchy. The Grand Mosque Seizure; or, Why Saudi Arabia is the Way it Is In November 1979, hundreds of armed religious militants took control of the Masjid al-Haram in Mecca--the holiest site in Islam. Their leader, Juhayman al-Otaybi, declared his brother-in-law, Mohammed Abdullah al-Qahtani, to be the *Mahdi--a redeeming figure in Islami prophesied to arrive on Earth several years before Judgement Day. For a period of two weeks, al-Otaybi and his supporters managed to maintain control of the Mosque. The ensuing assault led to the deaths of hundreds of fighters and pilgrims. The Grand Mosque Seizure was, in part, a response to the growth of “western influence” within Saudi Arabia. Al-Otaybi condemned the West calling for the abolition of television and radio, the expulsion of non-Muslims, and the removal of women from the workplace. For al-Otaybi, the ruling al-Saud family’s refusal to resist this western influence had robbed them of their right to rule. While al-Otaybi was ultimately unsuccessful in overthrowing the House of Saud, his insurrection did led to an important revelation for the Saudi monarchy: religious extremism was perhaps the single greatest threat to their continued hold on power in Saudi Arabia. Rather than restricting the power of the ulema in an attempt to curtail this threat, King Khalid dramatically expanded the role of the ulema and the religious police, surrendering some of the House of Saud’s power in exchange for additional stability and security. This state of affairs, with some tinkering, would remain the status quo for the next three decades. Shifting Sands Since the September 11th, 2001 attacks and the beginning of the Global War on Terror, the monarchy has taken significant steps to attempt to curtail the influence of the ulema. The monarchy has become much less tolerant of clerics that speak out against the monarchy, often arresting them (though these arrests are usually temporary, they are enough to scare the dissident clerics into silence). The rise of Mohammad bin Salman in the mid-2010s accelerated this curtailment of the ulema’s power. Viewed as a youthful reformer, MbS has undone many of the laws that were put in place following the Grand Mosque Seizure: in 2018, he removed the ban on female drivers, while in 2021, he legalized gambling and the consumption of alcohol. While he was within his rights to do so--again, the monarchy has no formal restrictions on its authority--these actions flew in the face of the alliance struck between the House of Saud and the ulema. Had the Crown Prince stopped there, conservative opposition to his rule might have been vocal, but nevertheless manageable. Resistance in this period was largely restricted to existing Saudi exile groups like Movement for Islamic Reform in Arabia and Hizb ut-Tahrir. A collection of senior clerics in Saudi Arabia rallied together to compose a new Memorandum of Exhortation--a call-back to the 1992 Memorandum written in the aftermath of Gulf War--condemning the Kingdom’s slide away from righteousness and towards western hedonism. The participating clerics were quickly stripped of their positions, arrested, or forced into exile, but their memorandum nevertheless made the rounds--especially in more rural, more conservative communities, where the monarchy had less power (relatively) than the ulema. Still, it spawned little but discontent whispers and prayers that someone would do something to set the Kingdom back on the righteous path. But he didn’t stop there. No more than four months later, Saudi Arabia invited the Bahraini Shi’a cleric Isa Qassim to Saudi Arabia. By itself, this would have created a diplomatic incident--Qassim was, in essence, the leader of the Shi’a opposition to the Saudi-aligned Sunni ruling dynasty of Bahrain, serving as a persistent thorn in the side of the Bahraini royal family. The fact that the House of Saud was inviting him to Saudi Arabia not just as a guest, but paying for the construction of a Hawza (a Shi’a seminary), was nothing short of sacreligious. The moment this news went public, conservative Saudi society flew into an outrage. How dare the monarchy collaborate with the radifa. Whatever control the monarchy had over the clergy melted away overnight, with most every Sunni cleric in the country denouncing the government’s support of the heretics in some form or another. Eight of the twenty-one members of the Council of Senior Scholars, the highest religious body in the country (and also one of the religious institutions most aligned with the House of Saud) resigned in protest. Among those resigning included several members of the al ash-Sheikh family, the foremost family of religious scholars and the direct descendents of al-Wahhab. Even Abdul-Rahman Al Sudais, the Imam of the Great Mosque of Mecca, issued a public denouncement of the government’s decision to fund the Hawza. Protests broke out throughout the country, especially in Mecca, Medina, and the Nejd, and while Saudi security forces were able to break their resolve after a week or two of protests, their discontent did not dissipate. The Saudi government’s 2022 decision to invite sixteen new American military bases only reignited tensions. Overnight, Saudi Arabia went from having no American bases to being the country with the sixth most American military bases. That anger stayed, bubbling beneath the surface. Waiting for an outlet. It finally found that outlet in 2022. At the opening ceremony of the new Hawza 'Ilmiya Dammam, a car bomb ripped through the crowd, destroying the largest building in the compound. When first responders arrived at the scene to treat the casualties, another suicide bomber--this one disguised as a first responder himself--detonated his vest, killing several dozen paramedics and security personnel. Several hours later, on the other side of the country in Jazan, a car bomber struck an under-construction American base, killing several Saudi construction workers (most of whom were migrant workers from South Asia or the Philippines), two American contractors leading the construction effort, and three American officers. Al Qaeda claimed responsibility for the attacks the next day. In total, some eighty-four people, including three American servicemen, two American contractors, and forty Saudi nationals, died in the attacks, while another two- to three-hundred were wounded. Among those dead were several of the most important clerics of the new Hawza, including Qassim and the Pakistani marja’ Muhammad Hussain Najafi. The other Pakistani marja’ involved in the Hawza, Bashir al-Najafi, succumbed to his injuries a week later. The response from the predominantly Wahhabi Sunni clergy in the country ranged from silence (for those not willing to risk the ire of the monarchy) to celebratory (for those more dedicated to their faith than self-preservation). For the Saudi government, this was a concerning sign of what was to come. Older members draw comparisons between the current political moment and that of the 1990s, when outrage against the monarchy led to the formation of conversative opposition groups and an increase in terror attacks by groups like al Qaeda. And indeed, their fears may be legitimate. Anti-American protests are becoming increasingly common throughout the country, with the country’s American embassies, consulates, and base construction sites under near constant siege by conservative protesters. The Sahwa movement, a peaceful Islamist group affiliated with the Muslim Brotherhood opposed to American bases on the Arabian peninsula, has returned in full force after being all but crushed by government repression in the 1990s. Increasing numbers of Saudi clerics are issuing open criticisms and condemnations of the government and its recent activities, posing a serious challenge to the legitimacy of the rule of King Salman and the Crown Prince. In a different world, the monarchy might have been able to find some way to placate these dissidents. The warnings were there. But once the genie is out of the bottle, it’s impossible to put it back in. In April 2022, King Salman and Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman launched an unprecedented purge of the religious establishment and the non-ruling branches of the House of Saud. Over the course of 48 hours, Saudi security forces rounded up and arrested numerous prominent figures on corruption charges. While this was in and of itself insignificant--MbS had already used corruption arrests to establish his power in the House of Saud in the past--the scale of them was substantially larger than any previous arrests. Moreover, those royals detained through this process found themselves stripped of the rights and comforts they had come to expect during detentions like these: rather than the Ritz Carlton, they instead found themselves thrown into dank, musty jail cells, as though they were any other criminal. This was a signal to the rest of the House of Saud: Mohammad bin Salman would no longer tolerate anything even remotely resembling opposition to his agenda. The Prince’s seizure of power did not end there. Later that week, King Salman announced that the Wahhabi religious clerics would no longer have any temporal power outside of the Holy Cities of Mecca and Medina. Saudi Arabia, according to the King, was going to become a more tolerant, progressive nation. Non-Muslims would have the same rights as Muslims for the first time in the Kingdom’s history. As if this weren’t an insult enough to the religious establishment, the King then declared that the Kingdom would be holding an interfaith celebration in the city of Mecca. This celebration would mark the first time that non-Muslims were (legally) allowed entrance into the Grand Mosque in over a thousand years--flying in the face of a restriction that predated the House of Saud itself. While King Salman’s decree robbed the Wahhabi religious establishment of its temporal power, it could never hope to so suddenly deprive them of their ability to sway the hearts and minds of the masses. Almost every cleric in the country, Salafi or Sufi, Wahhabi or Shafi’i, Sunni or Shi’a, immediately and unequivocally condemned the King’s decision to reverse a thousand years of tradition and allow non-Muslims into the holiest site of Islam. The Imam of the Grand Mosque resigned in disgust, stating that he would rather die than preside over kafirs gaining entrance to Holy City. Most of the Mosque’s clerics resigned with him.
The Situation on the Ground
The country has exploded into massive protests, attended by millions of people across the country. There are near-constant masses of people in the streets of Saudi Arabia’s major cities, while construction work on the proposed Church in Riyadh has been unable to continue due to the hundreds, if not thousands, of protesters surrounding the site at all times. Every day, their grip on Saudi society seems to slip further. Saudi Arabia has long relied on the cooperation of the religious establishment to quash dissent and break up protests. With that alliance shattered by King Salman’s recent actions, Saudi Arabia has had a harder time containing these protests than ever before. There are frequent reports of Saudi security personnel collaborating with the protesters, often sneaking advance warning of police crackdowns to protesters or allowing protest leaders to slip away from arrest warrants. This environment has allowed numerous critics of the government a new lease on life, as dissent is simply too large and too widespread for the government to crack down on all dissidents at once. One major resurfaced critic of the Saudi government has been the Muslim Brotherhood. Once an ally of the Saudis, the Muslim Brotherhood was declared a terrorist organization in 2014, after its Egyptian leadership was deposed in the 2013 coup d’etat. Since then, the group’s Saudi Arabian leaders were forced to flee into hiding in Qatar, Iraq, and, to a lesser extent, Bahrain. While the Muslim Brotherhood itself is not Wahhabist, and has many doctrinal disputes with the leading branch of Islam in Saudi Arabia, it has nevertheless made significant inroads into Saudi society over the past several months. As clerics and Saudi conservatives have become convinced that monarchy is unable to deliver the Sharia-adherent society they so desire (and worse, that they have little ability to coerce the monarchy into doing so), many have turned towards the Muslim Brotherhood and its promises of democracy. If nothing else, at least the system promoted by the Muslim Brotherhood would allow them to vote out incompetent royals like Mohammad bin Salman! While many of these groups are not openly violent and are content to continue peaceful (if still terribly disruptive) means of protest against the government, other groups are not. Saudi intelligence is reporting a large surge in the membership numbers of extremist groups like Al Qaeda, Islamic State, and their affiliates. These groups are able to tap into the discontent that has manifested in Saudi society, using the more peaceful groups like the Muslim Brotherhood and Sahwa Movement as a front for radicalizing and recruiting disenfranchised and disgruntled Saudi conservatives. Saudi intelligence suspects that the Kingdom’s sky-high youth unemployment rate--about 25 percent in 2019--has not helped matters, with many of the new recruits coming from the under-30 age group. Saudi intelligence suspects that the growth of these dissident and jihadi groups has also been assisted by covert funding from Qatar and the Qatari nobility (and in the case of the Muslim Brotherhood only, from Turkey as well), though as of yet, they have been unable to find concrete proof. Perhaps the most major opposition to Saudi rule, though, comes from the Wahhabi clerics that once lent so much legitimacy to the Saudi monarchy. Wahhabi clerics that had erstwhile been major supporters of the Saudi government took to every venue available to them--the pulpit, the streets, the internet, the radio--and loudly and repeatedly condemned the actions of the King and the Crown Prince, declaring that they had strayed from the path of the righteous and no longer had the moral authority to lead. Throughout the country, these Saudi intelligence and security forces have been overwhelmed trying to track down and arrest all of the clerics that have broken the law--either by insulting the King, calling for the death of unbelievers, or some other crime. Increasingly, they find that the public is providing a great deal of assistance in avoiding security personnel, providing housing, food, and other essentials that allow the clerics to go to ground and avoid arrest. Worse still, upper levels of the Saudi security apparatus have reported that their subordinates are, in some cases, simply refusing to carry out these arrest orders. Finally, elements of Saudi intelligence loyal to the Crown Prince himself are reporting rumors that should have Mohammad bin Salman very concerned. The recent instability in Saudi Arabia has led several members of the House of Saud to think that they could do a much better job running the country than this upstart reformer. While intelligence is unable to pinpoint exactly who is a threat to Mohammad bin Salman at this time, they have managed to suss out that there are ongoing talks between some members of the House of Saud and some members of the religious establishment that a palace coup might be the best way to ensure that their interests are protected. King Salman and MbS go away, the House of Saud can continue with its graft and corruption, and Sharia law and the power of the Wahhabis comes back. It’s a win for everyone. In short, Mohammad bin Salman faces a great number of issues that must be addressed--quickly--if he is to retain power.
Government Pockets Dry Up
(Written by Erhard) Saudi Arabia has been largely discounting oil export revenues to favor stronger relationships with its allies. This was destined to cause problems when $200 Bn, over 90% of total Saudi exports, come from revenues off of the oil they export. These oil revenues are so critical to the Saudi economy, that cutting off the revenue would send the economy into recession. The targets of these discounts were namely strong Saudi allies like the US, UK, Australia, India, Japan, and many more who are all known to be heavy oil consumers. Saudi Aramco, one of the largest companies on Earth by revenue, had shored up many of its accounts and had begun selling off assets to private investors and other companies just to keep itself afloat. The company, a state-owned enterprise, had to consult the government for this, but had really no other way to save itself. There were rumors in the company of bankruptcy, in one of the most profitable organizations, and layoffs had begun. Of the 76,000 employees, the company quickly shrunk down to 40,000 to recoup the losses. Oil prices across the world had never ever been lower. Fuel across the US was reporting record prices of $1.12 per gallon, which made consumers very happy while the Saudi economy was doing damage control, preparing for an implosion. It would seem the only way the company could recover would be to cut oil operations to slow the quantity to the market, and jack up the price to 20% over market value, effectively eliminating the discount and charging premiums to those who formerly had discounts. If implemented, the US consumer’s dream would be short-lived as they would approach prices of $4.15 per gallon, but would likely save the economy.
The Paper Tiger
A recent series of arrests has also brought to light an unanticipated vulnerability in the Saudi security establishment. Early in 2022, the Ministry of Defense announced plans to double the number of active-duty personnel in the Saudi Land Forces in a period of just two years. Assuming no retirements or fatalities (something that is hard to assume, given the ongoing Saudi intervention in Yemen), the Royal Land Forces will have to hire over three hundred people per day. Meeting this requirement in a country without conscription has required a massive increase in recruitment targets, coupled with a corresponding decrease in the standards used in hiring. In essence, anyone with a warm body that can hold a rifle and walk is being allowed into the military. Moreover, the massive increase in junior enlisted personnel has further taxed the brass’s ability to maintain discipline and unit cohesion: the army’s absenteeism rate has sky-rocketed, as there are simply too many recruits and too few skilled officers and NCOs in order to adequately enforce punishments. While the drop in Saudi Arabia’s combat capacity that this has caused is concerning on its own, far more concerning is the fact that not all of the recruits to the Saudi military have the country’s best interests at heart. A recent arrest of an Al Qaeda member in Riyadh revealed that numerous terrorist organizations, as well as other dissident organizations, have infiltrated substantial amounts of their members into the newly-expanded Saudi military. If left unchecked, these cells will pose a significant threat to the security of Saudi Arabia, and will be able to use their military training to greatly improve the efficiency of their parent organizations in the future. Moreover, it will give their parent organizations access to classified intelligence on Saudi (read: American) weapons systems, and likely lead to some of these systems ending up in the hands of militant groups in countries like Yemen. Similarly worrying is the monarchy’s deteriorating control of the Saudi Arabian National Guard. Separate from the traditional command structures of the Saudi military, the SANG has long served as the anti-coup, counter-insurgency, and counter-protest wing of the Saudi security establishment. It is comprised of a mixture of (largely conservative) tribal militias and personnel recruited from the Wahhabi religious establishment. Traditionally, these affiliations have helped protect the government from coups by the more liberal-minded military. In this instance, where the threat to the regime’s existence comes from conservative, religious parts of society, the loyalty of the National Guard has been called directly into question. Some worry that the ousted clerics and the more conservative elements of the House of Saud have compromised the integrity of the SANG, and may be able to use it in order to depose the current ruling family. Whatever the case, most agree that something needs to be done--and soon.
Issues Abroad
Naturally, when things go badly in a country as large as Saudi Arabia, they have a tendency to spill over into their neighbors. Below is a brief summary of some of the spillover effects in neighboring countries. The United Arab Emirates While the United Arab Emirates has long been the most “progressive” of the Gulf States, it is not without hardliners and conservatives. The country’s recent decision to decriminalize gay marriage has been met with considerable criticism from the country’s right-wing. Outrage against this decision--coupled with, Emirati intelligence suspects, but cannot prove, some assistance and funding from Qatar--has led to a revival of Al Islah, the UAE-branch of the Muslim Brotherhood. The US presence in the UAE at Al Dhafra Air Base has also under scrutiny as the Sahwa Movement has spread across the border into the UAE, but so far, the movements are still content to resort to peaceful protest. Bahrain The death of Isa Qassim has sent shockwaves throughout Bahraini society, worsening already-existing tensions in the Shi’a-majority, Sunni-dominated nation. An important leader of the Shi’a community and political movement on the island, Qassim served as a constant voice for peace, frequently working to curtail the more militant wings of the Shi’a rights movement and channel them into peaceful activities like protest and, before the suspension of the legislature, voting. His martyrdom (and indeed, he is viewed as a martyr now in Bahrain) on Saudi territory has led to a great deal of suspicion in the Shi’a community of Bahrain, with many believing that Saudi security forces let the assassination occur in order to eliminate one of the peninsula’s largest Shi’a opposition leaders. Whether this is true or not is irrelevant: enough people believe it that the new leaders of the opposition who have risen to fill the void have become more convinced that the only way to have their demands met is through violence. In the future, Shi’a opposition groups on the island will be more likely to turn to violence in order to have their demands met. The royal family has become increasingly skeptical of Saudi Arabia’s commitment to their continued existence and independence following its actions in Qatar. While they are not brave enough to stand up to Saudi Arabia (yet) owing to their proximity to the country, the Royal Family is deeply uncomfortable with the Saudi coup in Qatar. In essence, it appears to the Royal Family that Saudi Arabia will abuse the Crown Prince’s marriage ties in order to replace other leaders of the GCC as punishment for working against Saudi interests. Given the marriage ties between the grand daughter of the King of Bahrain and the Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman, Bahrain considers itself to be at heavy risk of one of these new “succession coups.” As such, Bahrain has started to (quietly) search for new allies to help guarantee its security against an aggressive Saudi Arabia. Iraq The death of Grand Ayatollah Basheer al-Najafi on Saudi territory at the hands of Sunni jihadists has led to a dramatic flare-up in sectarian tensions in Iraq. As one of the Big Four clerics in the holy city of Najaf, al-Najafi was one of the preeminent leaders of the Shi’a faith. Candlelight vigils and other mourning ceremonies have been held throughout the country to mark the passing of one of Shi’a Islam’s greatest minds, while anti-Saudi sentiment has been further cemented in the country. tl;dr
Saudi Arabia has dramatically curtailed the powers of the religious establishment, and broken a thousand-year-old prohibition on non-Muslims entering the Holy City of Mecca
There are massive conservative protests in Saudi Arabia. The largely conservative security establishment is sympathetic to these protests, hampering the Saudi response.
The threat of terrorist attacks in Saudi Arabia has increased dramatically
So far, two Al Qaeda attacks have led to the destruction of the Hawza in Dammam (and the death of three very important Shi'a marja') the death of 84 people (including forty Saudi nationals, three American servicemen, and two American contractors), and the injury of another two- to three-hundred
Saudi Arabia is facing a massive revenue crisis due to its heavy discounting of oil exports
There is large resistance to the rule of MbS and King Salman within conservative circles, with some suspecting that they will not be in power for much longer.
Smaller conservative protests are occurring in the UAE
Western Australia casinos and gambling information including poker tournaments, slots info, pari-mutuel (dogs & horses), texas hold'em, and more. Find contact information and view pictures of casinos in Western Australia. Gambling is present in Australia for a relatively short time since the first records of it date back to 1810. As you could probably guess, it was a horse racing event that happened at Hyde Park in Sydney.. However, the way gambling was organised was a little bit different from what we know as horse racing today.The competition was split into three days and, each day, all horses had to run a These are the eight different regions in Australia and their betting rules in summary. They all allow gambling and only have slight disparities apart from Western Australia. You can now know what to expect when gambling in this region. The Australian gambling laws are meant to protect the players from any form of exploitation. Their strictness The Gaming and Wagering Commission Act 1987 consolidates the law relating to minor gaming in Western Australia and provides the opportunity for clubs and charities to raise funds through lotteries, Bingo, Two-up and gaming events. It also provides the Gaming and Wagering Commission with the authority to supervise Racing and Wagering Western Australia's off-course wagering activities. Gambling Laws FAQs. Is sports betting legal in Australia? Yes, provided you bet with an Australian-licensed sportsbook. In order to check this, look for a seal from a state regulator like the Northern Territory Licensing Commission or the ACT Gambling and Racing Commission. Australia: Gambling Laws and Regulations 2021. ICLG - Gambling Laws and Regulations - Australia covers common issues in gambling laws and regulations – including relevant authorities and legislation, application for a licence, licence restrictions, digital media, enforcement and liability – in 37 jurisdictions. Australia’s complicated legal framework for gambling and betting means that there are different laws for betting activities in each State and Territory. The area that accounts for most confusion is the legislation surrounding the advertising and promotion of inducements to bet. Some State bodies allow sign up bonuses, while others don’t. Other States, like South Australia, have far more The department is responsible for regulating and maintaining the integrity of lawful racing, gambling and liquor activities for Western Australians to participate in. Gambling policy in Australia has traditionally been the responsibility of the States rather than the Commonwealth. State and territory governments regulate and provide gambling services and rely heavily on the ensuing revenue. However, recent developments have seen the Commonwealth take a more active role in this area. Public concern over the impact of gambling on Australian society prompted Western Australia Gambling Laws. Western Australia gambling regulations are prescribed by the state’s Department of Racing, Gaming and Liquor (RGL) of WA. The RGL is responsible for ensuring that the fairness standards of all the gambling machines in the state are maintained, casino games are not rigged and the provision of licenses to online casinos. There RGL has a stellar reputation of
Our Community Guidelines and policies apply to all YouTube content and define what you can and cannot do on YouTube. WELCOME BACK TO OUR CHANNEL GUYS! This trip was seriously up there with one of the best we've ever had in Australia. Follow us as we road trip from Perth to ... Western Australia is a land of superlatives and extremes. Occupying a third of the continent's total area, it's the largest of the Australian states with les... 300 km east of perth near merredin lies a 4000 hectar farm producing wheat and sheep. the farmer explains some of the challenges of farming; drought, frost,... This year was the most exciting year of our lives so far, so we would like to share a big part of it with you - our Road Trip through the amazing Western Aus... Western Australia's government has announced it will tighten border restrictions to travellers arriving from Victoria following a growing number of COVID-19 ...
